What is the probability that the patient does not have the disease if the test result is negative?

The negative predictive value (NPV) is the probability that a patient does not have a disease given that their test result is negative. In this context, NPV is a critical measure as it takes into account the reliability of the test in correctly identifying individuals who do not have the condition. It is calculated using the formula:

NPV = True Negatives / (True Negatives + False Negatives)

A high NPV indicates that a negative test result is a strong indication that the individual is disease-free. This measure is especially important in clinical settings, as it informs healthcare providers about the likelihood of a patient being disease-free based on their test outcome.

Understanding this concept is essential, as it directly impacts clinical decision-making and patient management. In contrast, the other options—positive predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity—focus on different aspects of test accuracy and are not specifically related to the interpretation of negative test results.